Global insights

Projections

• Primary energy consumption grows by nearly 10% in Current Trajectory and declines around 25% in Net Zero.

• Growth in primary energy consumption is not homogenous among regions. In developed economies and China, it declines in both scenarios. However, in emerging economies excluding China it grows by 1.3% per year in 2022-50 in Current Trajectory and declines by 0.3% per year in Net Zero.

• Oil demand drops between 23% and 73% in 2022-50. However, the demand for oil used as a feedstock increases almost 40% in Current Trajectory and is relatively resilient in Net Zero too, declining by around 10% and providing a floor under oil demand.

• The path of natural gas consumption is very different between scenarios, increasing by around 20% in Current Trajectory and declining by over 50% in Net Zero. In the latter scenario, around 80% of the gas consumed is in combination with a carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, contrasting with the limited use of CCS today.

• Renewable energy soars in both scenarios, growing by 3.3% to 4.6% per year in 2022-50. In addition to the rapid growth of wind and solar energy, bioenergy increases in both scenarios by around 1% per year in this period.

• The accelerated growth in renewable energy is partly due to higher power demand. Electricity generation increases 85% in Current Trajectory 135% in Net Zero from 2022.

• In Net Zero, hydrogen production is fully decarbonized. Green hydrogen represents around 60% of the total low carbon hydrogen produced by 2050. In this scenario low carbon hydrogen production achieves around 390 Mt in 2050. 

• Net CO₂e decline in both scenarios as the energy system decarbonizes. Carbon emissions reduce to 31 and 2 Gt of CO₂e in 2050 in Current Trajectory and Net Zero, respectively. Emissions in 2022 were 41 Gt of CO₂e.