Country insight – UK

Projections

• The UK’s economy grows at a rate of 1.4% a year in 2022-50, similar to the growth rate over the previous 20 years. This mostly reflects higher standards of living measured by GDP per capita. Population growth is close to zero.

• Primary energy consumption decreases in both scenarios. This reflects faster growth in energy efficiency than economic growth. Energy consumption falls by 19% and 27% in Current Trajectory and Net Zero, respectively, between 2022-50.

• The UK economy becomes increasingly electrified in both scenarios. The share of electricity in total final energy consumption increases to 46% and 60% in 2050 in Current Trajectory and Net Zero, respectively (from 21% in 2022).

• The shift towards electric vehicles contributes to lower oil consumption in both scenarios. Oil consumption falls to 0.5 Mb/d and 0.1 Mb/d in 2050 in Current Trajectory and Net Zero, respectively, from 1.3 Mb/d in 2022.

• Power generation from solar and wind increases to 452 TWh and 548 TWh in Current Trajectory and Net Zero, respectively, from 94 TWh in 2022. The shares of solar and wind in the electricity mix increase to around 70% in both scenarios from 27% in 2022.

• Hydrogen production increases to 0.9 Mt and 8.9 Mt in Current Trajectory and Net Zero, respectively, from 0.2 Mt in 2022. Unlike today, hydrogen produced by 2050 is mostly low carbon. This is true in both scenarios.

• Natural gas consumption decreases in both scenarios. Annual consumption declines to 37 Bcm and 33 Bcm in Current Trajectory and Net Zero, respectively, from 72 Bcm in 2022.

• Net CO₂ emissions decrease to 108 Mt and -61 Mt in Current Trajectory and Net Zero, respectively, from 369 Mt in 2022. CO₂ removal technologies make negative emissions possible.