Modelling guidance
The purpose of this page is to collate existing available public information that may assist with the financial modelling of bp. Please also refer to our legal notice.
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Trading conditions update
The trading conditions update is produced in order to provide equal disclosure to all investors and potential investors of current trading conditions.
Content includes the following:
- Current and historic market prices
- Current and historic marker margins
- Rules of thumb for Brent, Henry Hub and RMM
| Operating environment rules of thumb for the full year 2024 | Impact on pre-tax replacement cost operating profit |
|---|---|
| Oil price* Brent +/- $1/bbl |
$340m |
| Natural gas price* Henry Hub +/- $0.10/mmBtu |
$30m |
| Customers & products refining margin RMM +/- $ 1/bbl |
$400m |
*combined indicator for oil production & operations and gas & low carbon energy
Find out more about our trading conditions update
Upcoming quarters guidance
Below is bp's 2Q24 guidance as at 1Q24 results publication on 7 May 2024
- Looking ahead, bp expects second quarter 2024 reported upstream production to be slightly lower compared with first-quarter 2024.
- In its customers business, bp expects seasonally higher volumes and fuels margin to remain sensitive to movements in the cost of supply.
- In products, bp expects realized margins to be impacted by narrower North American heavy crude oil differentials, and to remain sensitive to relative movements in product cracks. In addition, bp expects the absence of the first quarter plant-wide power outage at the Whiting refinery to be partly offset by a higher level of turnaround activity.
Below is bp's 2024 guidance as at 1Q24 results publication on 7 May 2024
- bp continues to expect both reported and underlying upstream production to be slightly higher compared with 2023. Within this, bp continues to expect underlying production from oil production & operations to be higher and production from gas & low carbon energy to be lower.
- In its customers business, bp continues to expect growth from convenience, including a full year contribution from TravelCenters of America; a stronger contribution from Castrol underpinned by volume growth in focus markets; and continued margin growth from bp pulse driven by higher energy sold. In addition, bp continues to expect fuels margin to remain sensitive to the cost of supply.
- In products, bp continues to expect a lower level of industry refining margins, with realized margins impacted by narrower North American heavy crude oil differentials. bp continues to expect refinery turnaround activity to have a similar impact on both throughput and financial performance compared to 2023, with phasing of activity in 2024 heavily weighted towards the second half.
- bp continues to expect the other businesses & corporate underlying annual charge to be around $1.0 billion for 2024. The charge may vary from quarter to quarter.
- bp continues to expect the depreciation, depletion and amortization to be slightly higher than 2023.
- bp continues to expect the underlying ETR for 2024 to be around 40% but it is sensitive to the impact that volatility in the current price environment may have on the geographical mix of the group’s profits and losses.
- bp continues to expect capital expenditure for 2024 to be around $16 billion, but now expects the phasing to be split broadly evenly between the first half and the second half.
- bp continues to expect divestment and other proceeds of $2-3 billion in 2024, weighted towards the second half. Having realized $18.2 billion of divestment and other proceeds since the second quarter of 2020, bp continues to expect to reach $25 billion of divestment and other proceeds between the second half of 2020 and 2025.
- bp continues to expect Gulf of Mexico oil spill payments for the year to be around $1.2 billion pre-tax including $1.1 billion pre-tax paid during the second quarter.
