Fourth quarter and full year 2022 results

Highlights

Underlying replacement cost profit* $4.8 billion 

• Underlying replacement cost profit for the quarter was $4.8 billion, compared with $8.2 billion for the previous quarter. Compared to the third quarter, the result was impacted by a below average gas marketing and trading result after the exceptional result in the third quarter, lower oil and gas realizations, a higher level of refinery turnaround and maintenance activity, and lower marketing margins and seasonally lower volumes. An underlying ETR* of 40% in the fourth quarter brings the full year underlying ETR* to 34%. 
• Reported profit for the quarter was $10.8 billion, compared with a loss of $2.2 billion for the third quarter 2022. The reported result for the fourth quarter is adjusted by inventory holding losses net of tax of $1.1 billion and a gain for adjusting items* net of tax of $7.1 billion to derive the underlying replacement cost profit. Adjusting items include favourable fair value accounting effects* of $13.2 billion before tax, primarily due to a decrease in forward gas prices compared to the end of the third quarter.
   

Net debt* reduced to $21.4 billion; further $2.75 billion share buyback announced 

• Operating cash flow* in the quarter was $13.6 billion including a working capital release (after adjusting for inventory holding losses*, fair value accounting effects and other adjusting items) of $4.2 billion (see page 31).
• Capital expenditure* in the fourth quarter and full year was $7.4 billion and $16.3 billion respectively. Within this, inorganic spend was $3.5 billion in the fourth quarter and full year, including $3.0 billion for Archaea Energy, net of adjustments, and $0.5 billion for the earlier than expected completion of the acquisition of EDF Energy Services.
  
• During the fourth quarter, bp completed share buybacks of $3.2 billion. The $2.5 billion share buyback programme announced with the third quarter results was completed on 3 February 2023.
• In the fourth quarter, bp generated surplus cash flow* of $5.1 billion and intends to execute a $2.75 billion share buyback from surplus cash flow prior to announcing its first-quarter-2023 results. bp has now announced share buybacks from surplus cash flow equivalent to 60% of cumulative surplus cash flow since the start of 2021.
• Net debt fell for the eleventh successive quarter to reach $21.4 billion at the end of the fourth quarter. 
   

Growing distributions; updating disciplined financial frame

• A resilient dividend remains bp’s first priority within its disciplined financial frame. It is underpinned by a cash balance point* of $40 per barrel Brent, $11 per barrel RMM and $3 per mmBtu Henry Hub (all 2021 real).
• For the fourth quarter, bp has announced a dividend per ordinary share of 6.610 cents an increase of around 10%. This increase is underpinned by strong underlying performance and supported by the confidence we have in delivering higher adjusted EBITDA* as a result of our updated investment plans.
• bp is committed to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating, targeting further progress within an 'A' grade credit rating. For 2023 bp intends to allocate 40% of surplus cash flow to further strengthening the balance sheet.
• bp continues to focus on disciplined investment allocation. For 2023 bp expects capital expenditure of $16-18 billion and for 2024-30 now expects capital expenditure in a range of $14-18 billion including inorganic capital expenditure*.
• For 2023 and subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating, bp remains committed to using 60% of surplus cash flow for share buybacks.
• Based on bp’s current forecasts, at around $60 per barrel Brent and subject to the board’s discretion each quarter, bp expects to be able to deliver share buybacks of around $4.0 billion per annum, at the lower end of its capital expenditure range, and have capacity for an annual increase in the dividend per ordinary share of around 4%. 
   

Continued progress in transformation to an Integrated Energy Company 

• In a separate announcement, bp has today provided an update on the significant progress made in executing its transformation to an Integrated Energy Company (IEC) since outlining its new strategy.
  • In resilient hydrocarbons bp has accelerated its biogas strategy - part of its bioenergy Transition Growth Engine – completing the acquisition of Archaea Energy a leading US biogas company. Delivering on its focus on cost and efficiency, in 2022 bp delivered its lowest upstream unit production cost* since 2006 and highest upstream plant reliability* on record.
  • In convenience and mobility bp continues to make strategic progress, announcing an exclusive agreement in the UK with Marks and Spencer (M&S) to install fast(a) charge points to around 70 of their stores, adding up to 900 charge points within the next two years; and increasing the number of EV charge points by over 65% versus 2021.
  • In low carbon energy bp has continued to make rapid progress building its portfolio of green hydrogen* projects, signing memoranda of understanding (MoUs) with both Mauritania and Egypt to explore the potential for large scale green hydrogen developments. 

(a) Divestment proceeds are disposal proceeds as per the condensed group cash flow statement. See page 3 for more information on divestment and other proceeds.
(b) Full year 2022 excludes the ordinary shares issued as non-cash consideration for the acquisition of the public units of BP Midstream Partners LP. See Note 8 for more information.
(c) See Note 10 for more information. 

RC profit (loss), underlying RC profit (loss), surplus cash flow, net debt, ROACE, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBIDA, underlying RC profit per ordinary share and underlying RC profit per ADS are non-GAAP measures. Inventory holding (gains) losses and adjusting items are non-GAAP adjustments.

* For items marked with an asterisk throughout this document, definitions are provided in the Glossary on page 36

Further information

Contacts

bp press office, London: +44 (0)20 7496 4076, bppress@bp.com

Cautionary statement

In order to utilize the ‘safe harbor’ provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the ‘PSLRA’) and the general doctrine of cautionary statements, bp is providing the following cautionary statement:
The discussion in this results announcement contains certain forecasts, projections and forward-looking statements - that is, statements related to future, not past events and circumstances - with respect to the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of bp and certain of the plans and objectives of bp with respect to these items. These statements may generally, but not always, be identified by the use of words such as ‘will’, ‘expects’, ‘is expected to’, ‘aims’, ‘should’, ‘may’, ‘objective’, ‘is likely to’, ‘intends’, ‘believes’, ‘anticipates’, ‘plans’, ‘we see’ or similar expressions.

In particular, the following, among other statements, are all forward looking in nature: plans, expectations and assumptions regarding oil and gas demand, supply, prices or volatility; expectations regarding upstream production and bp’s customers & products business; expectations regarding refining margins; expectations regarding production from oil production and operations, gas and low carbon energy; expectations regarding bp’s business, financial performance, results of operations and cash flows; expectations regarding future project start-ups; expectations with regards to bp’s transformation to an IEC; expectations regarding price assumptions used in accounting estimates; bp’s plans and expectations regarding the amount and timing of share buybacks and quarterly and interim dividends; plans and expectations regarding bp’s credit rating, including in respect of maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating; plans and expectations regarding the allocation of surplus cash flow to share buybacks and strengthening the balance sheet; plans and expectations regarding bp’s exit of its shareholding in Rosneft and other investments in Russia; plans and expectations with respect to the total depreciation, depletion and amortization and business and corporate underlying annual charge for 2023; plans and expectations regarding the factors taken into account in setting the dividend per ordinary share and buyback each quarter; plans and expectations regarding investments, collaborations and partnerships in charging infrastructure; plans related to bp’s Launchpad accelerator; plans and expectations related to bp’s transition growth engines of bioenergy, convenience, EV charging, renewables and hydrogen; plans and expectations regarding divestments, including the amount and timing of proceeds; plans and expectations regarding bp’s renewable energy business; expectations regarding the underlying effective tax rate for 2023; expectations regarding the timing and amount of future payments relating to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill; expectations regarding bp’s defined benefit pension plans; plans and expectations regarding capital expenditure, including that capital expenditure will be around $16-18 billion in 2023; plans and expectations regarding bp’s work in the biogas industry; plans and expectations regarding projects, joint ventures and other partnerships and agreements, including partnerships and other collaborations with M&S, Mauritania, Egypt, REWE, Hertz, Chubu Electric and KMS as well as plans and expectations regarding the Mad Dog Phase 2 project in the Gulf of Mexico, the Tangguh expansion in Indonesia, operations in Trinidad and Tobago and Mozambique, the partnership with Shell and Lightsource bp to develop a solar project in Trinidad and Tobago, GTA Phase 1 Tortue projects, bp ventures’ investments in 5B Holdings Pty Ltd, the sale of its interest in the bp-Husky Toledo refinery to Cenovus Energy and related operational impacts, the sale of bp’s upstream business in Algeria to Eni and the development of EV charge points.

By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will or may occur in the future and are outside the control of bp.

Actual results or outcomes, may differ materially from those expressed in such statements, depending on a variety of factors, including: the extent and duration of the impact of current market conditions including the volatility of oil prices, the effects of bp’s plan to exit its shareholding in Rosneft and other investments in Russia, the impact of COVID-19, overall global economic and business conditions impacting bp’s business and demand for bp’s products as well as the specific factors identified in the discussions accompanying such forward-looking statements; changes in consumer preferences and societal expectations; the pace of development and adoption of alternative energy solutions; developments in policy, law, regulation, technology and markets, including societal and investor sentiment related to the issue of climate change; the receipt of relevant third party and/or regulatory approvals; the timing and level of maintenance and/or turnaround activity; the timing and volume of refinery additions and outages; the timing of bringing new fields onstream; the timing, quantum and nature of certain acquisitions and divestments; future levels of industry product supply, demand and pricing, including supply growth in North America and continued base oil and additive supply shortages; OPEC+ quota restrictions; PSA and TSC effects; operational and safety problems; potential lapses in product quality; economic and financial market conditions generally or in various countries and regions; political stability and economic growth in relevant areas of the world; changes in laws and governmental regulations and policies, including related to climate change; changes in social attitudes and customer preferences; regulatory or legal actions including the types of enforcement action pursued and the nature of remedies sought or imposed; the actions of prosecutors, regulatory authorities and courts; delays in the processes for resolving claims; amounts ultimately payable and timing of payments relating to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill; exchange rate fluctuations; development and use of new technology; recruitment and retention of a skilled workforce; the success or otherwise of partnering; the actions of competitors, trading partners, contractors, subcontractors, creditors, rating agencies and others; bp’s access to future credit resources; business disruption and crisis management; the impact on bp’s reputation of ethical misconduct and non-compliance with regulatory obligations; trading losses; major uninsured losses; the possibility that international sanctions or other steps or actions taken by any competent authorities or any other relevant persons may impact Rosneft’s business or outlook, bp’s ability to sell its interests in Rosneft, or the price for which bp could sell such interests; the actions of contractors; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; changes in public expectations and other changes to business conditions; wars and acts of terrorism; cyber-attacks or sabotage; and other factors discussed elsewhere in this report, as well as those factors discussed under “Risk factors” in bp’s Annual Report and Form 20-F 2021 as filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and those factors discussed under “Principal risks and uncertainties” in bp’s Report on Form 6-K regarding results for the six-month period ended 30 June 2022 as filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

This announcement contains inside information. The person responsible for arranging the release of this announcement on behalf of BP p.l.c. is Ben Mathews, Company Secretary.