Third quarter 2023 results

Highlights

Underlying replacement cost profit* $3.3 billion

• Underlying replacement cost profit for the quarter was $3.3 billion, compared with $2.6 billion for the previous quarter. Compared to the second quarter 2023, the result reflects: higher realized refining margins, lower level of refining turnaround activity, a very strong oil trading result, higher oil and gas production, partly offset by a weak gas marketing and trading result.
  
• Reported profit for the quarter was $4.9 billion, compared with $1.8 billion for the second quarter 2023. The reported result for the third quarter is adjusted for inventory holding gains* of $1.2 billion (net of tax) and a net favourable impact of adjusting items* of $0.4 billion (net of tax) to derive the underlying replacement cost profit. Adjusting items include impairments of $1.2 billion and favourable fair value accounting effects* of $1.5 billion.
  

Operating cash flow* $8.7 billion and net debt* reduced to $22.3 billion

• Operating cash flow in the quarter of $8.7 billion includes a working capital* release (after adjusting for inventory holding gains, fair value accounting effects and other adjusting items) of $2.0 billion (see page 27). 

• Capital expenditure* in the third quarter was $3.6 billion. bp now expects capital expenditure, including inorganic capital expenditure* to be around $16 billion in 2023.

• During the third quarter, bp completed $2.0 billion of share buybacks. This included $225 million as part of the $675 million programme announced on 7 February 2023 to offset the expected full-year dilution from the vesting of awards under employee share schemes in 2023. bp completed the $675 million buyback programme on 1 September 2023.

• The $1.5 billion share buyback programme announced with the second quarter results was completed on 27 October 2023.

• Net debt was reduced by $1.3 billion to $22.3 billion at the end of the third quarter.
  

Further $ 1.5 billion share buyback within a disciplined financial frame

• A resilient dividend is bp’s first priority within its disciplined financial frame, underpinned by a cash balance point* of around $40 per barrel Brent, $11 per barrel RMM and $3 per mmBtu Henry Hub (all 2021 real).
• For the third quarter, bp has announced a dividend per ordinary share of 7.270 cents.
• bp remains committed to using 60% of 2023 surplus cash flow* for share buybacks, subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating.
• bp intends to execute a further $1.5 billion share buyback prior to reporting fourth quarter results.
• In setting the dividend per ordinary share and buyback each quarter, the board will continue to take into account factors including the cumulative level of and outlook for surplus cash flow, the cash balance point and the maintenance of a strong investment grade credit rating.
• bp’s guidance for distributions remains unchanged. Based on bp’s current forecasts, at around $60 per barrel Brent and subject to the board’s discretion each quarter, bp expects to be able to deliver share buybacks of around $4.0 billion per annum, at the lower end of its $14-18 billion capital expenditure range, and have capacity for an annual increase in the dividend per ordinary share of around 4%.

Continued progress in transformation to an integrated energy company

• In resilient hydrocarbons, bp has announced the start-up of Tangguh Expansion – the third major project* in 2023 - adding around 3.8mtpa of producing capacity to the existing 7.6mtpa facility. It has safely produced the first commercial cargo. In August, bpx energy successfully brought online 'Bingo', its second central processing facility in the Permian Basin. In September, a regulatory approval was received for the Murlach oil and gas development in the North Sea, a two well redevelopment of the Marnock-Skua field back to the ETAP (Eastern Trough Area Project) hub. bp has accelerated its biogas strategy – part of its bioenergy transition growth* engine - bp’s Archaea Energy announced the start-up of its original Archaea Modular Design (AMD) renewable natural gas plant in Medora, Indiana.
  
• In convenience and mobility, bp continued to advance its growth strategy in EV charging and convenience: announcing an agreement in October with Tesla for the future purchase of $100 million of ultra-fast chargers in the US – this is part of the approved $500 million of investment in the US; and expanding its successful strategic convenience partnership with Auchan in Poland, with plans to add more than 100 EasyAuchan stores to its retail network by the end of 2025.
  
• In low carbon energy, bp has strengthened its renewables pipeline to 43.9GW net to bp from the rights awarded to develop two offshore wind projects, with total potential generating capacity of 4GW, in the German tender round.
  

(a) Divestment proceeds are disposal proceeds as per the condensed group cash flow statement. See page 3 for more information on other proceeds.

(b) See Note 9 for more information.

RC profit (loss), underlying RC profit (loss), surplus cash flow, net debt, adjusted EBITDA, underlying RC profit per ordinary share and underlying RC profit per ADS are non-IFRS measures. Inventory holding (gains) losses and adjusting items are non-IFRS adjustments.

*For items marked with an asterisk throughout this document, definitions are provided in the Glossary on page 31.

Further information

Contacts

bp press office, London: +44 (0)20 7496 4076, bppress@bp.com

Cautionary statement

In order to utilize the ‘safe harbor’ provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the ‘PSLRA’) and the general doctrine of cautionary statements, bp is providing the following cautionary statement:
The discussion in this results announcement contains certain forecasts, projections and forward-looking statements - that is, statements related to future, not past events and circumstances - with respect to the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of bp and certain of the plans and objectives of bp with respect to these items. These statements may generally, but not always, be identified by the use of words such as ‘will’, ‘expects’, ‘is expected to’, ‘aims’, ‘should’, ‘may’, ‘objective’, ‘is likely to’, ‘intends’, ‘believes’, ‘anticipates’, ‘plans’, ‘we see’ or similar expressions.

In particular, the following, among other statements, are all forward looking in nature: plans, expectations and assumptions regarding oil and gas demand, supply, prices or volatility; expectations regarding reserves; expectations regarding production; expectations regarding bp’s customers & products business; expectations regarding refining margins; expectations regarding turnaround and maintenance activity; expectations regarding financial performance, results of operations and cash flows, and Adjusted EBITDA; expectations regarding future project start-ups; expectations with regards to bp’s transformation to an IEC; price assumptions used in accounting estimates; bp’s plans and expectations regarding the amount and timing of share buybacks and dividends; plans and expectations regarding bp’s credit rating, including in respect of maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating; plans and expectations regarding the allocation of surplus cash flow to share buybacks and strengthening the balance sheet; plans and expectations with respect to the total depreciation, depletion and amortization and the other businesses & corporate underlying annual charge for 2023; plans and expectations regarding bp’s development of its LNG portfolio; plans and expectations regarding investments, collaborations and partnerships in electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure; plans and expectations related to bp’s transition growth engines of bioenergy, convenience, EV charging, renewables and power, and hydrogen; expectations relating to bp’s development of its wind pipeline; plans and expectations regarding the amount or timing of payments related to divestment and other proceeds, and the timing, quantum and nature of certain acquisitions and divestments; expectations regarding the underlying effective tax rate for 2023; expectations regarding the timing and amount of future payments relating to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill; plans and expectations regarding capital expenditure; expectations regarding greenhouse gas emissions; expectations regarding legal proceedings, including those related to the Louisiana coastal restoration and climate change; plans and expectations regarding bp-operated projects and ventures, and its projects, joint ventures, partnerships and agreements with commercial entities and other third party partners, including those related to Advanced Ionics, Dynamon, Electric Hydrogen, Midwest Alliance for Clean Hydrogen and Auchan.

By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will or may occur in the future and are outside the control of bp.

Actual results or outcomes, may differ materially from those expressed in such statements, depending on a variety of factors, including: the extent and duration of the impact of current market conditions including the volatility of oil prices, the effects of bp’s plan to exit its shareholding in Rosneft and other investments in Russia, the impact of COVID-19, overall global economic and business conditions impacting bp’s business and demand for bp’s products as well as the specific factors identified in the discussions accompanying such forward-looking statements; changes in consumer preferences and societal expectations; the pace of development and adoption of alternative energy solutions; developments in policy, law, regulation, technology and markets, including societal and investor sentiment related to the issue of climate change; the receipt of relevant third party and/or regulatory approvals; the timing and level of maintenance and/or turnaround activity; the timing and volume of refinery additions and outages; the timing of bringing new fields onstream; the timing, quantum and nature of certain acquisitions and divestments; future levels of industry product supply, demand and pricing, including supply growth in North America and continued base oil and additive supply shortages; OPEC+ quota restrictions; PSA and TSC effects; operational and safety problems; potential lapses in product quality; economic and financial market conditions generally or in various countries and regions; political stability and economic growth in relevant areas of the world; changes in laws and governmental regulations and policies, including related to climate change; changes in social attitudes and customer preferences; regulatory or legal actions including the types of enforcement action pursued and the nature of remedies sought or imposed; the actions of prosecutors, regulatory authorities and courts; delays in the processes for resolving claims; amounts ultimately payable and timing of payments relating to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill; exchange rate fluctuations; development and use of new technology; recruitment and retention of a skilled workforce; the success or otherwise of partnering; the actions of competitors, trading partners, contractors, subcontractors, creditors, rating agencies and others; bp’s access to future credit resources; business disruption and crisis management; the impact on bp’s reputation of ethical misconduct and non-compliance with regulatory obligations; trading losses; major uninsured losses; the possibility that international sanctions or other steps taken by any competent authorities or any other relevant persons may impact or limit bp’s ability to sell its interests in Rosneft, or the price for which it could sell such interests; the actions of contractors; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; changes in public expectations and other changes to business conditions; wars and acts of terrorism; cyber-attacks or sabotage; and those factors discussed under “Principal risks and uncertainties” in bp’s Report on Form 6-K regarding results for the six-month period ended 30 June 2023 as filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) as well as those factors discussed under “Risk factors” in bp’s Annual Report and Form 20-F 2022 as filed with the SEC.

This announcement contains inside information. The person responsible for arranging the release of this announcement on behalf of BP p.l.c. is Ben Mathews, Company Secretary.