The outlook for energy in two scenarios

bp’s Energy Outlook 2024 uses two scenarios – Current Trajectory and Net Zero – to explore the speed and shape of the energy transition out to 2050 and to help shape a resilient strategy for bp.

• Current Trajectory is designed to capture the broad pathway along which the global energy system is currently travelling.
• Net Zero explores how different elements of the energy system might change in order to achieve a substantial reduction in carbon emissions.

The global energy system

The two scenarios are informed by recent trends and developments in the global energy system. In emerging trends, we discuss these recent developments across areas including energy security, energy demand, carbon emissions and investment.

The scenarios can be used to help inform some key insights about how the energy system may evolve over the next 25 years. We discuss trends common across both scenarios, including the rapid growth of wind and solar power and the declining importance of fossil fuels, and also trends that are more dependent on the pace of the transition, including the use of biofuels and low carbon hydrogen.

In the overview, we use the two scenarios to explore the speed and shape of the energy transition out to 2050, then in the following pages discuss the outlook for the various fuel types.

Accelerating the energy transition 

We compare the two scenarios to explore what needs to change in order to move from the current relatively slow, shallow and geographically uneven decarbonization pathway to a faster global transition that could be considered consistent with the Paris climate goals.