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Country insight – China

Published:
10 July 2024
China’s consumption of renewables more than triples by 2050 in Current Trajectory and Net Zero; renewables account for over 60% of primary energy demand in Net Zero by 2050
China insights pdf / 364.9 KB

Highlights

-13% to 36%

change in primary energy by 2050 from 2022 level

8% to 31%

share of coal in primary energy in 2050

27% to 61%

share of renewables in primary energy in 2050

-51% to -101%

net change in CO2e emissions by 2050

China’s electrification rate increases from 30% in 2022 to 43% in 2050 in Current Trajectory, and nearly 60% in Net Zero

The share of coal in electricity generation falls from 63% in 2022 to 14% in 2050 in Current Trajectory and <0.5% in Net Zero

Solar power expands rapidly, with the annual growth rate surpassing 8% between 2022-50 in both scenarios

Projections

  • China’s economy grows at a rate of 2.9% a year in 2022-50, down from 8.4% a year over the past 20 years.
  • Primary energy consumption declines in both scenarios, primarily due to the economic structure upgrading and a transition to a low carbon economy.
  • The share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy use declines from 11% in 2022 to 37% in Current Trajectory and 78% in Net Zero by 2050.
  • Nuclear power has a growing role, with its share in primary energy increasing from 1% in 2022 to around 5% in 2050 in Current Trajectory, and 8% in Net Zero.
  • Oil demand declines under both scenarios, decreasing 20% in 2050 in Current Trajectory, and nearly 70% in Net Zero, compared to 2022.
  • Natural gas demand shows different trends in the two scenarios. The share of natural gas consumption in primary energy decreases from 9% in 2022 to 5% in Net Zero but increases to 14% in Current Trajectory in 2050.
  • Coal’s share in primary energy drops in Current Trajectory and Net Zero, to 31% and 8% respectively by 2050, from 61% in 2022. The fall in coal use is mainly offset by increasing deployment of renewables in power.
  • Modern bioenergy demand increases under both scenarios, by a factor of more than two in Current Trajectory and more than seven in Net Zero compared to 2022 levels.
  • Energy intensity falls under both scenarios by 2050, declining around 60% and 70% in Current Trajectory and Net Zero, respectively, compared to 2022.
  • Carbon intensity falls under both scenarios by 2050, declining 78% in Current Trajectory and 100% in Net Zero, respectively, compared to 2022.

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