Developed economies

Projections

• GDP grows at an average rate of 1.2% per year between 2022 and 2050.

• Carbon emissions fall from 12 Gt of CO₂e in 2022 to negative emissions in Net Zero by 2050, however around 5 Gt of CO₂e emissions remain in 2050 in Current Trajectory.

• Energy demand decreases by 22% and 40% respectively in Current Trajectory and Net Zero between 2022 and 2050, due to increasing energy efficiency.

• Renewables expand over the outlook, with their share in primary energy increasing from 9% in 2022 to 37% and 56% in Current Trajectory and Net Zero respectively.

• Electricity generation increases between 2022 and 2050 in the two scenarios, by 58% in Current Trajectory and 78% in Net Zero, equating to average increases of 1.6% and 2.1% per year respectively.

• There is an increased demand for low carbon hydrogen in 2050 compared to 2022. In Current Trajectory, average annual growth of 2.9% is required to meet demand, while in Net Zero, 7.3% annual growth is required.

• Oil demand falls by more than half from 44 Mb/d in 2022 to 21 Mb/d in 2050 in Current Trajectory. In Net Zero, oil demand in 2050 falls to around 7 Mb/d. 
• Natural gas demand also falls over the outlook, although not as significantly as oil. Natural gas consumption in 2050 is 1,280 Bcm and 731 Bcm in Current Trajectory and Net Zero respectively, equating to 76% and 44% of the consumption level from 2022.

• Consumption of coal provided 31 EJ of energy in 2022, equating to 15% of primary energy consumption. In 2050, coal’s share of primary energy consumption will be under 5% in Current Trajectory, and under 3% in Net Zero.