Country insight – Brazil

Projections

• Brazil’s economy grows at a rate of 1.5% a year in 2022-50, down from 2.1% a year over the past 20 years.

• Primary energy grows by 25% in Current Trajectory but remains broadly stable in Net Zero. Average growth per year is between -0.1% and 0.8%.

• The share of oil in total primary energy over the past 30 years has been broadly stable at around 40%. However, by 2050, it declines in both scenarios, reaching between 11% and 29%.

• Renewable energy growth is strong in both scenarios, averaging 2% per year. As a result, renewable energy becomes the largest source of primary energy in 2050 in both scenarios. The second largest in Current Trajectory is oil while in Net Zero it is biomass.

• Electricity generation in 2050 is around two times of that in 2022 in both scenarios, with solar and wind power accounting for around 90% of that growth.

• The share of biofuels in total primary energy for transport grows in Current Trajectory from 20% in 2022 to 26% in 2050, and 40% in Net Zero.

• Brazil’s biomethane production grows in both scenarios, up to 8 Bcm in 2050, from 0.35 Bcm in 2022.

• Brazil's hydrogen demand grows by a factor of six in Current Trajectory and 25 in Net Zero. In 2050, green hydrogen represents more than 80% of hydrogen demand in both scenarios.

• Carbon emissions fall by 2050 in both scenarios. In Current Trajectory, emissions fall by 8% relative to 2022. In Net Zero, they start to decline earlier and faster, decreasing by 94% by 2050.