Regional insight – EU

Projections

• Total final consumption declines between 24% and 43% in 2022-50.

• However, this decline hides material changes in energy demand from transport, industry, and buildings. Electricity, hydrogen, bioenergy and synthetic fuels grow in all scenarios. The combined share of these fuels on total final demand increases from 30% in 2022 to 65-85% in 2050.

• Even with a decrease in overall energy consumption, electricity generation is projected to grow significantly, between 64% and 70%. This strong growth is partly driven by the production of green hydrogen, which itself accounts for 14-27% of the total increase in electricity generation.

• Electrification increases in all final use sectors. The share of electricity over total consumption of energy in industry grows from 31% in 2022 to 46% and 53% in 2050 in Current Trajectory and Net Zero, respectively. Within buildings, this share grows from 34% in 2022 to 53% and 63% in 2050. Within transport, the penetration of electricity is 1% in 2022 but it reaches 41% in Current Trajectory and 51% in Net Zero.

• Fossil fuel consumption declines strongly in both scenarios. In Net Zero, these fuels decline between 82% and 96%. In Current Trajectory natural gas is slightly more resilient and declines only 44%, while coal and oil decrease by 82% and 73%, respectively. In this scenario, 18% of natural gas is consumed in combination with a carbon capture and storage technology.

• The EU decarbonizes at a rapid speed. The current level of emissions is similar to that of 1968. In Current Trajectory emissions decline by 75%, reducing to 0.7 Gt of CO₂e. In Net Zero carbon emissions are completely removed from the energy system. In both scenarios, the power sector is fully decarbonized by 2050.