Country insight – US

Projections

• The US economy grows by 1.5% per year from 2022-50, down from 2.1% per year over the past 20 years.

• Similar to other developed economies, US primary energy consumption declines in both scenarios, reflecting an increase in energy efficiency and transition to a low carbon system.

• Net CO₂ emissions fall from 5.4 Gt of CO₂e in 2022 to 2.4 Gt of CO₂e in Current Trajectory and -0.3 Gt of CO₂e in Net Zero by 2050. Compared to 2005, emissions fall by 25-34% by 2030.

• By 2050 electricity accounts for 38% of energy demand in Current Trajectory and roughly 60% in Net Zero, from 22% in 2022.

• US electricity load growth accelerates from 0.5% per year over the past decade to 2-3% per year from 2022 to 2035.

• Wind and solar’s share of power generation rises from 15% in 2022 to almost 70% in both scenarios in 2050.

• Oil demand falls from almost 20 Mb/d in 2022 to 17 Mb/d in 2035 in Current Trajectory, similar to the past two decades’ trajectory, but falls more sharply to 14 Mb/d in Net Zero.

• By 2050, the share of natural gas consumption in total primary energy decreases only slightly in both Current Trajectory and Net Zero to 31-34%, respectively, from 36% in 2022.

• By 2050 hydrogen production reaches 21 Mt in Current Trajectory and 70 Mt in Net Zero.

• Coal’s share in the primary energy mix drops in Current Trajectory and Net Zero, to 2% by 2050 from 11% today. US oil and NGLs production plateaus by 2030 in both scenarios and falls to between 3-10 Mb/d by 2050.

• LNG exports more than double by 2030 from around 100 Bcm in 2022 in both scenarios. Growth continues to 300 Bcm in Current Trajectory by 2050 but falls to only 40 Bcm in Net Zero.