Country insight – India

Projections

• India’s economy grows at a rate of 4.9% per year in 2022-50, down from 7.0% per year over the past 20 years.

• Primary energy grows strongly in both scenarios, by 90% and 21% in 2022-50 in Current Trajectory and Net Zero respectively (2.3% and 0.7% CAGR respectively). As result of this strong growth, India accounts for around 12% of the global primary energy consumption in 2050 across both scenarios, up from around 7% in 2022.

• Coal’s share of total primary energy modestly declines in Current Trajectory, down to 44% by 2050 from 48% in 2022. However, it declines sharply in Net Zero to less than 13% by 2050.

• India’s natural gas production grows in Current Trajectory to 36 Bcm by 2050, up from 30 Bcm in 2022. It decreases to 8 Bcm by 2050 in Net Zero.

• The share of natural gas in primary energy grows in Current Trajectory from 5% in 2022 to 9% in 2050, driven by power, road transport and industry. Gas’s share of primary energy remains broadly flat at around 5% in Net Zero.

• Renewables grow strongly in both scenarios, averaging 3-5% growth per year. Renewable energy becomes the largest source of primary energy in 2050 in Net Zero, and second largest in Current Trajectory (after coal).

• The use of modern biomass roughly doubles by 2050 in both scenarios, driven by industry and transport and – in Current Trajectory – by cofiring with coal in power.

• Solar and wind installed capacities in 2050 reach 1.2-2.7 TW and 0.4-1.5 TW, respectively, depending on the scenarios.

• Electricity generation in 2050 is more than three times of that in 2022 in Current Trajectory, and more than four times in Net Zero, with solar and wind power accounting for 60-100% of that growth.

• Hydrogen demand grows by a factor of two in Current Trajectory and up to an eightfold increase in Net Zero. In 2050, green hydrogen represents 37% of total hydrogen production in Current Trajectory and 89% in Net Zero.

• Carbon emissions vary significantly by scenario. In Current Trajectory emissions increase by around 73% in 2050. In Net Zero, emissions decrease by 81%.